← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M Russell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 47% | 2.27 |
| Plymouth win | 27% | 4.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.5 | 53% | 2.03 |
| Mansfield −0.5 | 47% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Mansfield |
| 23' | 🟨 | Owen Dale · Plymouth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jamie McDonnell · Mansfield |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Caleb Roberts · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 88.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1548.56 | 1423.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.06 | -2.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 3.34 | 5.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.10 |