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Peterboro 1–2 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Sam Mulhall, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win41%2.48
Blackpool win31%3.25
Draw29%3.36

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool βˆ’0.2553%1.90
Peterboro βˆ’0.2547%2.14

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.94
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Zachary Ashworth · Blackpool
35'⚽ (og)Peter Kioso · Blackpool
44'⚽Matthew Garbett · Peterboro
45'🟨Harley Mills · Peterboro
45'🟨Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool
60'🟨Jordan Brown · Blackpool
63'🟨Brandon Khela · Peterboro
69'🟨Archie Collins · Peterboro
81'🟨Lee Evans · Blackpool
85'⚽Scott Banks · Blackpool

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
27Shots9
6On target2
9Corners1
15Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.580.58
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days
85.00
85.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)1.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.092.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.410.35
elo1453.251521.75
elo momentum (last 5)17.85-32.06
eye test v1-0.54-1.16
eye trend v1-0.000.14
first sub minute (last 10)61.0050.20
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.640.64
league points10.009.00
league rank23.0024.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4069.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8045.40
rest days7.107.00
scorer concentration0.400.30
season ppg0.830.69
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.807.80
skill v1-0.22-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.702.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.20
state index-0.23-0.88
sterile dominance v10.09-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.190.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.14
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.00