← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 48% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Burton win | 24% | 4.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.68 |
| Over | 42% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 51' | ⚽ | Alex Hartridge · Burton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Burton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Bradley Collins · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 85.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1445.78 | 1389.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.79 | 11.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 25.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 25.49 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |