← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Oct 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Exeter win | 32% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Plymouth +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.99 |
| Over | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 40' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Exeter |
| 58' | ⚽ | — · Exeter |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 78' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Owen Oseni · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 83.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1486.73 | 1433.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.51 | 20.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |