← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: John Busby, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 51% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.73 |
| Northampton win | 23% | 4.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Northampton −0.5 | 49% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Ben Close · Doncaster |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Glenn Middleton · Doncaster |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tyrese Fornah · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1425.24 | 1405.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.84 | 8.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -1.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 60.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 26.20 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |