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Blackpool 1–1 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Neil Hair, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win42%2.31
Blackpool win29%3.30
Draw29%3.31

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool +0.2551%1.91
Wycombe +0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.78
Over45%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Lee Evans · Blackpool
45'⚽Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool
55'🟨CJ Hamilton · Blackpool
90'🟨Jordan Brown · Blackpool
90'⚽Jack Grimmer · Wycombe

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots14
1On target6
2Corners2
9Fouls12
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.570.63
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
coach days
78.00
78.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.002.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.402.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.390.55
elo1521.551588.69
elo momentum (last 5)-23.72-5.94
eye test v1-0.90-0.43
eye trend v10.18-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)49.7055.30
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.71β€”
league points8.0012.00
league rank24.0019.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8074.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6052.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.23
season ppg0.671.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.202.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6012.20
skill v1-1.14-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
state index-0.510.13
sterile dominance v1-0.280.16
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.18
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80