← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 41% | 2.38 |
| Peterboro win | 32% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Burton −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Jimmy Morgan · Peterboro |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tom Lees · Peterboro |
| 42' | 🟨 | Thomas O'Connor · Peterboro |
| 55' | 🟨 | Finn Delap · Burton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Armer · Burton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Archie Collins · Peterboro |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tom Lees · Peterboro |
| 81' | 🟥 | Tom Lees · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1402.23 | 1368.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.97 | 2.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.39 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.93 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |