← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 56% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.17 |
| Burton win | 21% | 4.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.75 | 51% | 1.99 |
| Burton +0.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Cissoko · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 48' | ⚽ | Fábio Tavares · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Forss · Bolton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days |
| 71.00 |
| 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1487.54 | 1564.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.80 | 21.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |