← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 36% | 2.76 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 34% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale +0 | 52% | 1.93 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Ryan Croasdale · Port Vale |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 72' | ⚽ | Antwoine Hackford · AFC Wimbledon |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel · Port Vale |
| 86' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Ogundere · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days |
| 71.00 |
| 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1570.86 | 1566.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.68 | 29.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 21.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |