← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 44% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.39 |
| Rotherham win | 27% | 3.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.25 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Rotherham −0.25 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jamal Baptiste · Rotherham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Josh Benson · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 71.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1417.41 | 1401.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.06 | -15.50 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 8.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.04 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 29.94 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |