← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 42% | 2.36 |
| Wigan win | 30% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Plymouth −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Fraser Murray · Wigan |
| 31' | 🟨 | Owen Oseni · Plymouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Matthew Smith · Wigan |
| 42' | 🟨 | Luke Robinson · Wigan |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 69' | 🟨 | Will Aimson · Wigan |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Steven Sessegnon · Wigan |
| 82' | ⚽ | Fraser Murray · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 64.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1441.33 | 1520.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.85 | -10.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |