← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Corlett, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
| Leyton Orient win | 19% | 4.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leyton Orient −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.73 |
| Under | 43% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 29' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ronan Kpakio · Cardiff |
| 52' | ⚽ | Dylan Lawlor · Cardiff |
| 54' | ⚽ | Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient |
| 57' | 🟨 | Chris Willock · Cardiff |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Leyton Orient |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 69' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 71' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 78' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 26 |
| 7 | On target | 11 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 4 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 64.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1455.99 | 1593.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.85 | -32.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |