← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastian Stockbridge, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.76 |
| Peterboro win | 15% | 6.84 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bolton −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 21' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Peter Kioso · Peterboro |
| 41' | ⚽ | Peter Kioso · Peterboro |
| 63' | 🟨 | George Nevett · Peterboro |
| 88' | 🟨 | Teddy Sharman-Lowe · Bolton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 64.00 |
| 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1559.58 | 1445.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.37 | -8.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |