← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Speedie, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 26% | 3.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.67 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · AFC Wimbledon |
| 39' | 🟨 | Oliver Casey · Blackpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Bowler · Blackpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Isaac Ogundere · AFC Wimbledon |
| 63' | ⚽ | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · AFC Wimbledon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lee Evans · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days | 64.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1472.55 | 1414.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.44 | 17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 27.29 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |