← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Thomas Parsons, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Doncaster win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.06 |
| Burton win | 22% | 4.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Burton −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Doncaster −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand