← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Oct 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Yates, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 46% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
| Rotherham win | 27% | 3.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Denzel Hall · Rotherham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joe Powell · Rotherham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jamal Baptiste · Rotherham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Will Swan · Bradford |
| 50' | ⚽ | — · Rotherham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 54' | 🟨 | Denzel Hall · Rotherham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tom McIntyre · Bradford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tommy Leigh · Bradford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cameron Dawson · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alexander Pattison · Bradford |
| coach days | 62.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1495.27 | 1617.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.90 | 23.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |