← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Jacob Miles, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 68% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 |
| Burton win | 13% | 7.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Burton −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 38' | 🟨 | George Evans · Burton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sebastian Revan · Burton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronan Kpakio · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 60.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1467.59 | 1471.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.97 | -62.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | — |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.44 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |