← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Martin Woods, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 41% | 2.37 |
| Blackpool win | 31% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Luton +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | CJ Hamilton · Blackpool |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool |
| 53' | ⚽ | CJ Hamilton · Blackpool |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Albie Morgan · Blackpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Saville · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Gideon Kodua · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days |
| 60.00 |
| 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1547.07 | 1457.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.56 | 3.89 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| league points | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 276.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |