← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Scott Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Northampton win | 20% | 4.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bolton +0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Joe Wormleighton · Northampton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days |
| 57.00 |
| 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1500.73 | 1575.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.77 | 33.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |