← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Mather, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 50% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.76 |
| Rotherham win | 24% | 4.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Rotherham −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 20' | 🟨 | Denzel Hall · Rotherham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tyler Roberts · Mansfield |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nathan Moriah-Welsh · Mansfield |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lenny Agbaire · Rotherham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
| 62' | ⚽ | Tyler Roberts · Mansfield |
| 88' | 🟨 | Reece James · Rotherham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dom Dwyer · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1527.46 | 1502.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.06 | -13.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |