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Bradford 1–0 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Ben Atkinson, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bradford win46%2.09
Blackpool win27%3.51
Draw27%3.62

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bradford βˆ’0.2553%1.83
Blackpool βˆ’0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Max Power · Bradford
23'🟨Ibou Touray · Bradford
45'🟨Tom McIntyre · Bradford
51'⚽Josh Neufville · Bradford

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots10
3On target3
3Corners5
11Fouls13
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBradfordBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.700.64
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueValley Parade
coach days57.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.41
elo1471.931480.38
elo momentum (last 5)30.90-29.37
eye test v1-0.12-1.22
eye trend v1-0.300.15
first sub minute (last 10)56.0058.50
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.690.54
league points20.007.00
league rank4.0022.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)45.6042.20
rest days7.007.10
scorer concentration0.310.43
season ppg2.220.88
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.409.20
skill v1-1.12-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.20
squad age28.2127.13
state index0.42-0.57
sterile dominance v1-1.08-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.310.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.310.22
travel kmβ€”84.60
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.20