← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Andrew Humphries, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 36% | 2.62 |
| Stevenage win | 36% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Stevenage +0 | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.98 |
| Over | 46% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient |
| 26' | ⚽ | Harvey White · Stevenage |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 61' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 68' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| coach days | 57.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1606.11 | 1566.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.32 | 19.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |