← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Hicks, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
| Exeter win | 18% | 5.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stevenage −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Harvey White · Stevenage |
| 27' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 537.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1560.50 | 1493.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.92 | -13.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |