← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Rock, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.74 |
| Rotherham win | 25% | 3.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Rotherham +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.98 |
| Over | 49% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 23' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Stockport |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kyle Wootton · Stockport |
| 60' | ⚽ | Kyle Wootton · Stockport |
| 88' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1509.85 | 1678.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.63 | -45.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |