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Reading 2–1 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Yates, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading win39%2.55
Leyton Orient win34%2.75
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading +053%1.85
Leyton Orient +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.95
Over50%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Jack Marriott · Reading
45'🟨Derrick Williams · Reading
48'⚽Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient
50'🟨Thomas James · Leyton Orient
51'🟨Ashqar Ahmed · Reading
76'🟨Lewis Wing · Reading
79'⚽Liam Fraser · Reading
84'🟨Azeem Abdulai · Leyton Orient
90'🟨Matt Ritchie · Reading
90'🟨Andre Garcia · Reading
90'🟨Josh Koroma

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots17
6On target6
2Corners6
13Fouls11
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReadingLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.70
cards avg (last 5)3.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSelect Car Leasing Stadium
· Leyton Orient
coach days50.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.461.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.39
elo1530.961616.85
elo momentum (last 5)-5.32-24.49
eye test v1-0.07-0.58
eye trend v10.51-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)59.7056.10
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.27
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.650.68
league points5.0011.00
league rank22.0014.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6072.60
possession avg (last 5)47.2052.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg0.711.38
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.008.20
skill v1-0.26-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
state index-0.21-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.200.66
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.15
threat rate (last 5)0.250.16
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80