← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alex Chilowicz, USA
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 44% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 |
| Mansfield win | 27% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Mansfield −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.79 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟥 | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
| 53' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Port Vale |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ruari Paton · Port Vale |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aaron Lewis · Mansfield |
| 71' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Port Vale |
| 86' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ronan Curtis · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| 50.00 |
| 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1544.50 | 1535.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.15 | 26.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |