← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Peter Wright, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 50% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 21% | 4.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 37' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · AFC Wimbledon |
| 53' | ⚽ | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alistair Smith · AFC Wimbledon |
| 82' | ⚽ | Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1613.62 | 1530.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.44 | -14.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |