← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Woods, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 53% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Bradford win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff −0.75 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.83 |
| Under | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Tommy Leigh · Bradford |
| 29' | 🟨 | Gabriel Osho · Cardiff |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford |
| 43' | 🟨 | Josh Neufville · Bradford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 49' | ⚽ | Josh Neufville · Bradford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Max Power · Bradford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Colwill |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyreik Wright · Bradford |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1457.81 | 1599.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 70.26 | 17.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.27 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 276.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |