← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Sebastian Stockbridge, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 44% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
| Lincoln win | 28% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Lincoln +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 17' | 🟨 | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jerry Yates · Luton |
| 53' | 🟨 | George Saville · Luton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Teden Mengi · Luton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joseph Gbode · Luton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Justin Obikwu · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 5.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1579.19 | 1452.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.73 | 4.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |