← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Benjamin Speedie, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 52% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.71 |
| Wigan win | 23% | 4.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wigan −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Thierry Gale · Bolton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Marcus Forss · Bolton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joseph Hungbo · Wigan |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marcus Forss · Bolton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Paul Mullin · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 16 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1498.74 | 1486.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.68 | 14.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.23 | 27.32 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 8.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |