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Peterboro 2–1 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Jacob Miles, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win47%2.06
Peterboro win27%3.58
Draw26%3.65

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro +0.553%1.84
Wycombe +0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Matthew Garbett · Peterboro
41'βš½β€” Β· Peterboro
49'⚽Fred Onyedinma · Wycombe
53'🟨Brandon Khela · Peterboro
69'🟨Daniel Harvie · Wycombe
84'🟨George Nevett · Peterboro
90'🟨Cian Hayes · Peterboro

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots12
6On target5
3Corners3
12Fouls14
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.570.64
cards avg (last 5)1.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days43.0043.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.400.53
elo1435.401594.63
elo momentum (last 5)-35.50-14.39
eye test v1-0.95-0.20
eye trend v10.22-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.5057.20
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.670.68
league points1.005.00
league rank24.0019.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet16.000.00
matches since win14.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)55.8054.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentrationβ€”0.17
season ppg0.140.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.601.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.0012.20
skill v10.760.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.00
state index-1.440.05
sterile dominance v11.200.51
threat rate (last 10)0.160.21
threat rate (last 3)0.140.22
threat rate (last 5)0.160.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80