← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Woods, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 38% | 2.59 |
| Stevenage win | 33% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Stevenage +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nathan Moriah-Welsh · Mansfield |
| 70' | ⚽ | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
| 73' | ⚽ | Joe Gardner · Mansfield |
| 75' | 🟨 | Beryly Lubala · Stevenage |
| 79' | 🟨 | Harvey White · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 530.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1536.56 | 1559.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.27 | 31.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |