← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Yates, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.42 |
| Plymouth win | 17% | 5.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Luton −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 19' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Jerry Yates · Luton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bradley Ibrahim · Plymouth |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Nahki Wells · Luton |
| 50' | 🟥 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 52' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Luton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Bradley Ibrahim · Plymouth |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brendon Galloway · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 16 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.43 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1466.11 | 1413.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.17 | 14.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |