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Leyton Orient 1–1 Bolton

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Rock, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton win47%2.06
Leyton Orient win28%3.52
Draw25%3.90

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient +0.553%1.85
Bolton +0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton
29'🟨Demetri Mitchell · Leyton Orient
39'🟨Jack Simpson · Leyton Orient
69'⚽Jack Simpson · Leyton Orient
87'🟨George Johnston · Bolton
89'🟨Thomas James · Leyton Orient
90'⚽Amario Cozier-Duberry · Bolton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots11
1On target4
3Corners8
13Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientBolton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)2.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBrisbane Road
coach days
43.00
43.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.604.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.201.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.013.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.15
dominance (last 5)0.440.77
elo1620.241557.52
elo momentum (last 5)-20.3914.87
eye test v1-0.330.92
eye trend v1-0.140.13
first sub minute (last 10)59.6058.80
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points10.0010.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6085.00
possession avg (last 5)59.4065.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.50
season ppg1.431.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.8013.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6019.40
skill v10.431.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.80
state index0.050.41
sterile dominance v11.080.72
threat rate (last 10)0.210.31
threat rate (last 3)0.140.29
threat rate (last 5)0.160.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60