← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Russell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 39% | 2.48 |
| Exeter win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Port Vale +0.25 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.69 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ruari Paton · Port Vale |
| 12' | 🟨 | Cameron Humphreys · Port Vale |
| 45' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Port Vale |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter |
| 79' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days |
| 43.00 |
| 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1510.07 | 1527.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.06 | -40.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.55 |
| league points | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |