← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Corlett, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 38% | 2.49 |
| Burton win | 33% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Burton +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Sonny Bradley · Lincoln |
| 36' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adam Jackson · Lincoln |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1505.34 | 1569.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.41 | 9.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |