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Barnsley 3–2 Reading

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley win51%1.90
Reading win25%3.81
Draw24%3.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley −0.551%1.91
Reading −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.61
Under41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Josh Earl · Barnsley
22'🟨Matty Jacob · Reading
35'⚽Jack Marriott · Reading
37'🟨Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley
38'🟨Charlie Savage · Reading
45'🟨Ashqar Ahmed · Reading
55'⚽Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley
59'⚽ (pen)Adam Phillips · Barnsley
66'⚽Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading
70'🟨Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading
73'🟨Finley Burns

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots14
5On target5
5Corners4
19Fouls15
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarnsleyReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.620.65
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOakwell
· Reading
88'🟨Luca Connell · Barnsley
90'🟨Murphy Cooper · Barnsley
coach days43.0043.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.642.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.44
elo1546.371539.05
elo momentum (last 5)15.42-17.69
eye test v10.12-0.39
eye trend v1-0.430.42
first sub minute (last 10)62.1060.70
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.331.51
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.600.68
league points13.005.00
league rank6.0020.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)58.0047.80
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.400.40
season ppg2.170.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0010.80
skill v10.65-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
state index0.28-0.13
sterile dominance v10.930.05
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60