← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Swabey, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Rotherham win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Rotherham −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
| 7' | 🟨 | Kian Spence · Rotherham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Mathew Stevens · AFC Wimbledon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Riley Harbottle · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1522.02 | 1518.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.17 | -29.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |