⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Port Vale 2–3 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ross Joyce

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Port Vale win42%2.30
Leyton Orient win31%3.13
Draw27%3.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient −0.2552%1.89
Port Vale −0.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Ryan Croasdale · Port Vale
9'🟨Connor Hall · Port Vale
13'⚽Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient
44'⚽Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient
52'⚽Devante Cole · Port Vale
53'🟨Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient
64'🟨Ollie O'Neill · Leyton Orient
90'🟨Sean Clare · Leyton Orient
90'⚽Charlie Wellens · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots11
8On target4
5Corners2
7Fouls6
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPort ValeLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVale Park
coach days
36.00
36.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.392.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.52
elo1537.301610.63
elo momentum (last 5)-36.80-21.19
eye test v1-0.70-0.29
eye trend v10.12-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)62.1058.30
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.700.67
league points2.007.00
league rank23.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0072.60
possession avg (last 5)45.0058.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.60
season ppg0.331.17
shot diff avg (last 5)4.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0010.20
skill v1-0.910.09
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.80
state index-0.570.01
sterile dominance v1-1.080.76
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.15
threat rate (last 5)0.320.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.80