← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alan Young
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 41% | 2.32 |
| Wigan win | 30% | 3.48 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan −0.25 | 52% | 1.96 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Paul Mullin · Wigan |
| 24' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 27' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 34' | ⚽ | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 50' | ⚽ | Callum Wright · Wigan |
| 64' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 68' | 🟥 | Christian Saydee · Wigan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 77' | 🟥 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1572.04 | 1534.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.90 | -5.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.12 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |