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Huddersfield 3–2 Peterboro

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Sep 6, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Martin Coy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win64%1.49
Draw21%4.69
Peterboro win15%7.32

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield βˆ’154%1.93
Peterboro βˆ’146%2.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.75
Under44%2.28

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Herbie Kane · Huddersfield
47'βš½β€” Β· Peterboro
60'⚽Will Alves · Huddersfield
67'⚽Herbie Kane · Huddersfield
90'🟨Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro
90'⚽Joe Taylor · Huddersfield
90'⚽Cian Hayes · Peterboro

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots5
5On target3
1Corners3
16Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldPeterboro
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.610.51
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueJohn Smit
coach days36.0036.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.02
corner diff avg (last 5)3.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.17
dominance (last 5)0.570.42
elo1464.111366.23
elo momentum (last 5)20.51-42.78
eye test v10.15-1.15
eye trend v1-0.24-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)52.1059.20
form points (last 5)9.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.800.58
league points12.001.00
league rank7.0024.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0015.00
matches since win1.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8079.80
possession avg (last 5)55.4055.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.22β€”
season ppg2.000.17
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.20
skill v10.470.57
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.00
squad age25.36β€”
state index0.09-1.74
sterile dominance v10.541.07
threat rate (last 10)0.230.17
threat rate (last 3)0.220.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00