← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alex Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Bradford win | 31% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Doncaster −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 12' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Bradford |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jordan Gibson · Doncaster |
| 44' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Bradford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Billy Sharp · Doncaster |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tyreik Wright · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1621.29 | 1601.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.60 | 23.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -2.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -1.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |