← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Darren Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.37 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 14% | 7.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Bolton −1.25 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.96 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 29' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 50' | 🟥 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 53' | ⚽ | Amario Cozier-Duberry · Bolton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Joel Randall · Bolton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Thierry Gale · Bolton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1543.36 | 1536.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.27 | 17.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |