← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Mather, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 39% | 2.53 |
| Wycombe win | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe −0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Stevenage −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Chem Campbell · Stevenage |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Wycombe |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Stevenage |
| 69' | 🟨 | Junior Quitirna · Wycombe |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 516.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1549.91 | 1593.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.50 | -34.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |