← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aaron Bannister,
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 43% | 2.24 |
| Mansfield win | 29% | 3.37 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Mansfield −0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.73 |
| Over | 42% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Sonny Bradley · Lincoln |
| 30' | 🟥 | Sonny Bradley · Lincoln |
| 35' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 53' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dom Dwyer · Mansfield |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Lincoln |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 79' | 🟨 | George Wickens · Lincoln |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nathan Moriah-Welsh · Mansfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Baily Cargill |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1574.56 | 1544.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.36 | 32.53 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.33 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |