← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jacob Miles, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Northampton win | 20% | 5.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Leyton Orient −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Tayo Adaramola · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thomas James · Leyton Orient |
| 54' | 🟨 | Josh Koroma · Leyton Orient |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1625.83 | 1485.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.00 | -15.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |