← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Scott Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.50 |
| Plymouth win | 18% | 5.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −1 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Cardiff −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.82 |
| Under | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 44' | ⚽ | Chris Willock · Cardiff |
| 50' | ⚽ | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronan Kpakio · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Isaak Davies · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1437.14 | 1402.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 67.91 | -17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |