← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Exeter win | 29% | 3.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 16' | ⚽ | Max Dyche · Northampton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sonny Cox · Exeter |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ed Turns · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1470.66 | 1521.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.36 | 0.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.90 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |