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Mansfield 4–1 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient win36%2.63
Mansfield win36%2.72
Draw28%3.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mansfield +050%1.99
Leyton Orient +050%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.98
Over49%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Regan Hendry · Mansfield
29'⚽Regan Hendry · Mansfield
37'⚽Josh Koroma · Leyton Orient
42'🟨Baily Cargill · Mansfield
50'🟨Will Evans · Mansfield
51'🟨Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient
59'⚽Will Evans · Mansfield
62'🟨Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient
62'🟥Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient
90'⚽Luke Bolton · Mansfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots8
5On target3
7Corners7
7Fouls15
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMansfieldLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.710.65
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOne Call Stadium
coach days22.0022.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.011.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1524.401646.43
elo momentum (last 5)27.642.66
eye test v1-0.34-0.07
eye trend v1-0.04-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)55.2060.20
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.740.68
league points6.007.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8070.60
possession avg (last 5)49.0053.80
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg1.501.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.60
skill v1-0.40-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
state index0.330.58
sterile dominance v10.08-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40