← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 45% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Cardiff win | 27% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 53% | 1.94 |
| Cardiff −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Josh Keeley · Luton |
| 55' | 🟨 | George Saville · Luton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Chris Willock · Cardiff |
| 86' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.34 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1580.63 | 1531.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.71 | 12.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.03 | 23.50 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 196.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |